67 Years to Go

Over the course of my life, the ocean — our planet's great blue heart — has undergone changes more rapid and profound than in almost any period in human history. Inspired by David Attenborough's lifelong witness to the beauty and fragility of our natural world, I've made a decision. I am dedicating the remaining two-thirds of my life to a single, uncompromising goal: leaving the ocean in a fundamentally better place by my 100th birthday in 2092 than it was on the day I arrived.

With 67 years to go, the clock is ticking. But this isn't just about passively preserving what's left; it's about active, relentless restoration.

The Vital Signs of Restoration

To make this vision a reality, we have to look closely at the data and track three core metrics of our marine ecosystems:

• Kelp Canopy Cover — we need to transform desolate, overgrazed sea urchin barrens back into thriving, dense kelp forests. Kelp is the structural foundation of our coastal biodiversity and an incredibly powerful local carbon sink.
• Ocean Temperature — since the early 1990s, our global and local waters have been warming at an alarming rate. We must fight global emissions to stabilise these temperatures, while simultaneously restoring our reefs so they have the resilience to survive the marine heatwaves we are already locked into.
• Ocean pH (Acidification) — as the ocean absorbs excess carbon dioxide, it becomes more acidic, severely threatening shell-building marine life. By actively cultivating and protecting macroalgae like kelp, we can create local "halos" of higher, more natural pH — critical safe havens for vulnerable species.

Forecasting to 2092: The Climate Scenarios

To project out to 2092, we have to look at two main climate pathways intersecting with local marine management:

• Medium Emissions (RCP 4.5) — we successfully curb global emissions. Sea surface temperature around New Zealand rises by about 1.1–1.4°C compared to the 1990s, and pH dips to around 7.92. Marine reserves are highly likely to maintain healthy, stable kelp forests under this scenario.
• High Emissions (RCP 8.5) — global emissions continue unabated. SST could climb by 2.5°C or more by the end of the century, and pH could plummet to 7.77. This level of extreme warming and acidification would severely stress marine life — even protected reserves could see kelp die-offs or replacement by invasive turf algae.

Climate pathway is only half the story. The data from Dr Nick Shears' long-term monitoring at Leigh shows that local reef management — whether an area is a no-take marine reserve or remains open to fishing — is just as decisive for kelp as the emissions scenario itself. Remove the fishing pressure on snapper and rock lobster, and they keep kina in check; leave it in place, and the kina graze the reef down to bare rock regardless of what the climate does. I've charted exactly how depleted those predator stocks actually are in The Empty Reef.

To help you explore these interconnected trends across the next several decades, I've built an interactive visualisation below. Toggle the emissions pathway and the reef management practice to see how they shape the future of Auckland's coastal waters — together.

The Unthinkable Alternative

What happens if we get this wrong? The implications of failure extend far beyond empty fishing nets or quiet reefs.

If we fail to curb global warming and stabilise our oceans, we risk the catastrophic loss of landlocked Antarctic ice. This isn't just an abstract scientific concept — it represents a massive influx of freshwater that will drive sea-level rise, permanently reshaping our coastlines and communities.

Furthermore, we face a devastating loss of marine biodiversity. For thousands of years, the ocean has acted as the ultimate stabilising force of our global climate, absorbing excess heat and regulating the weather patterns that allowed humanity to flourish. If we strip the ocean of its biological complexity and push this system past its breaking point, we lose the very life-support engine that has kept Earth's temperatures consistent.

A Call for Backup

I cannot do this alone. Reversing decades of trophic downgrading and chemical alteration is a massive, multi-generational mission. It requires a global community acting relentlessly on a local level.

Whether it's advocating for the expansion of no-take Marine Protected Areas, volunteering for active kelp restoration and urchin culling efforts, or pushing for the rapid decarbonisation of our economy — I need your help.

We have the data. We know the science. And, crucially, we still have the time. Let's spend the next 67 years getting it right.

This local fight, it turns out, mirrors a much bigger story — read more in A Global Story, A Local Mission.